Coronavirus vs Globalization

Is the coronavirus the end of the (modern) world as we know it?

Probably not, but it has shown that the current globalized order has a lot of cracks. From migration to the economy, the global multicultural order is showing sever signs of stress, and is cracking under the weight of a virus. It is symptomatic that it has started in China - isn't everything "made in China" these days? - and from there spread to all the world. It was also quite ironic seeing migrants wanting to storm into Europe at the same time that the continent fights with an epidemic.

I do tend to think that there is a certain exaggeration in the way things are being portrayed in the media, and yet, no one seems to know for sure if this is a disease that will kill millions or if it is just something a bit more worrisome than a flu that will go away as winter ends.

It may be that it is something in between: neither the new black plague, but also not "just the flu". It seems that it is a somewhat serious disease that is affecting mostly older people, and that will cause a great disruption in the economy (mostly because of quarantine and other efforts to contain it).

Other than that, however, we can only speculate. Hopefully by the end of winter it will be solved, but we can't know for sure.

The case of Italy might show more details about what is happening, as the country is closer to us in the way it works than China. So far, here are some interesting statistics (in Italian): 233 victims as of today; average age of fatal victims is 81; 70% of them are men, and 60% had simultaneous diseases or pathologies. Fatal cases below 50 years of age are non-existent; between 50 and 59 years of age, only one.

Unfortunately Italy has a lot of old people; in some little villages it seems they are the only ones living there; the fertility rate in the country is a meagre 1.35, and the average age in the country is a pretty old 45.4. Unless the restrictive measures currently in place work, and the virus is contained in the following weeks, many other sympathetic Italian old men could die. 

Now, I am not happy about those people dying, old or young as they may be, and I hope that the disease is contained or cured in the following weeks. But I am personally not so worried, being anti-social and all, but still, better safe than sorry, as they say, so I'll just become even more anti-social than usual.


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